The power of the Prius:
A wise man once said: "If only Detroit could produce cars that didn't have to idle at stop lights..." (Bob Sikorsky, "Drive it forever"). Idling is the most wasteful thing we do, but few people consider turning off their engines. Not only that, it's hard on your engine. Your car doesn't want to idle.
What is harder on a car? Highway miles, or city miles? The answer should be obvious. When you step on the brake, all that hard earned momentum is converted from kinetic energy into heat by your brakes.
The Prius gives us a car that is big enough not to scoff at, light enough to be efficient, and it turns off at stop lights. The battery acts as a kind of capacitor for kinetic energy, smoothing out everything for the gas engine, which still does all the work. Toyota built a wonderfully efficient engine and transmission here, make no mistake, the battery and electric technology is not what is great about the Prius. The thing just gets 50mpg.
What does this have to do with GM? Well, Toyota, GM and Honda are the major players in the future electric car market, and the game is about to change. In fact, it's been changing for the last 150-200 years, inexorably.
-According to Wikipedia: "Around 1811 Richard Trevithick was required to update a Watt pumping engine in order to adapt it to one of his new large cylindrical Cornish boilers. Steam pressure above the piston was increased eventually reaching 40 psi (0.28 MPa) and now provided much of the power for the downward stroke; at the same time condensing was improved."
-January 1, 1863; the second proclamation of emancipation is issued.
-February 19 1946, Alan Turing presented the detailed design of a stored program computer.
-On September 16 2008, GM introduced the production version of the Chevy volt.
How are all of these things connected? I would argue they represent the greatest advances of humanity in modern history. The steam engine provides us with the industrial revolution, when the pace of humanity began it's frenetic acceleration.
Documentation is sketchy on the subject, I would argue that from an economic standpoint, freeing of slaves had an immeasurable impact. At another point in history, 1945, a huge influx of motivated capitalists also had a big impact on the world economy, these of course were the GI's. You can look at graphs to convince yourself of this, and extrapolate the impact of the freedmen.
We all have Alan Turing to thank for the computer, and this probably represents the greatest increase in efficiency and productivity of all.
You might have heard of the industrial revolution, and maybe other revolutions, the "management" revolution, the "information" revolution. I think they are part of a much larger and more important "Efficiency revolution," the argument at the heart of capitalism. Those with the creativity to create greater efficiency for their consumers, get the reward.
The power of the volt:
You might recall that the power of the Prius is that it doesn't have to idle at a stop light. The power of the volt, is that it can idle at a stop light, and be just as efficient as it would be at 55mph. The volt represents the second greatest increase in efficiency for our generation, and will bridge the gap for our society in between cars and the end result of growth, public transportation. What is so efficient about it? It's motivation is purely electric. Only two other cars have ever been produced as electrics, the EV1, and the Rav4. Both projects were canned because they weren't viable. This was good business. The batteries at the time sucked.
What does it mean that it can idle at a stop light? Let's say you need to take a trip, and use up all that wonderful 0.50$/Gal electric energy in your lithium ion batteries. A wonderfully efficient generator kicks in that doesn't need to worry about torque or idling. This is already how trains and boats work. It also means that if something better comes along, you can drop that in there instead, and not change a thing about the drive train.
Do all the math about KW/H versus light sweet crude you want, none of it really matters. Even if it was more expensive the volt would be worth it, and ordinary people are starting to realize it. Did you read ahead and see the answer? Moving parts. The volt will cost almost nothing to maintain, compared to an average of 500-1000$ per year for an internal combustion engine. There are thousands of moving parts in a gas engine, and only a handful in an electric.
I just shelled out 4 grand for a new engine. It came with a lifetime warranty, which is actually pretty sweet. Others I know have recently spent 2K or more on routine repairs. Still others pay 500 dollars for what amounts to 20 minutes of work. This is the ultimate expression of the broken-window fallacy. If we had this money in our pocket, and the time spent waiting or ratcheting back, we could be infinitely more productive. A new influx of workers would be available to the economy writ large, as mechanics become a thing of the past.
There's more! Fewer car accidents. Lighter cars have shorter braking distance. What about break-downs? Not anymore. For most people, the gas engine in the volt hardly ever runs long enough to wear out over 20-30 years with the right oil and gas additives. And the batteries? By only going between 30-80% of cycle, these batteries will last practically forever.
How about risk? Risk is managed in the datacenter with "redundancy." If you go to Sun or Microsoft, you'll find that their computers are plugged into batteries, which are hooked both into the power grid, and into gas generators. With the volt, you won't be at the whim of quick changes in the price of one commodity. You can run off the gas engine for a few weeks if electricity prices get too high. Or you can avoid using gas altogether.
I bought GM at 10$/share, a 50 year low for a company that is regarded around the world for being a leader in efficiency. Here in america, the share price was hammered by credit and because everyone started asking, "why do they produce so many guzzlers here then?" The answer is simple: another question of course, "what did everyone want to buy?" Things change. The time is now. The future may be uncertain, and another company may inherit the market, but for now, GM has stood up, and said "here it is," and no one is answering. After all, Toyota has become just another american car company. Their quality is as shoddy as the rest, and their SUV's as big.
Save us, GM! Set the auto mechanics free. They can stop turning their wrenches and our stomaches, and move on to other pursuits, adding new capitalist blood into the well. Just as any structural shift, we will come out immensely richer for it.
We are at a crossroads on this planet, and the next 50 years will tell if we'll live through it. The revolution in efficiency has begun.
1 comment:
Ah! A definite Erik post! Hopefully my Camry will last until the Volt is out a year or two.
Post a Comment